![]() ![]() Some decrease in intensity may occur with this convection into the afternoon, though indications are that subsequent storm redevelopment may occur across the southeastern Virginia/eastern Carolinas area during the afternoon, ahead of the advancing cold front. These storms may be accompanied by ongoing risk for locally damaging wind gusts, and possibly a tornado. Thunderstorms – possibly in the form of an at least loosely organized band – will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across the western Carolinas vicinity. Parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions Meanwhile, a weaker low/trough is forecast to cross the Plains through the afternoon/evening hours. The front should clear the East coast from New Jersey southward through late afternoon/early evening, with the low then continuing across southern New England into the overnight hours. Meanwhile, the second trough – expected over the northern and central High Plains area early in the day –will move east-southeastward across the Plains through the afternoon, and to the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley region by the end of the period.Īt the surface, a compact low/frontal system is forecast to cross the central and southern Appalachians region early, and then across Virginia and the Carolinas through the day. The first of these troughs is expected to cross the central and southern Appalachians region during the day, and then should move off the Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Coasts during the evening. Thursday, two short-wave troughs will be associated with two distinct areas of convective/severe potential. ![]() Within the belt of moderate west-southwesterly mid-level flow across the U.S. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains, and from the Alabama vicinity to the coastal Carolinas/southeast Virginia on Thursday. Valid 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA…AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY AREA Outlook Imagesĭay 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023 ![]() Outlook for Thursday, August 10 Outlook Summary NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z ← back to overview For more info on short term severe potential, see MCD 1925. Isolated strong storms may continue another couple of hours further south/southwest across north TX. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard, though a couple of tornadoes and hail main also occur. With time a severe MCS is expected to spread east/southeast across the Mid-South toward the TN Valley tonight. While uncertainty is a bit higher than normal given concerns over storm mode, this environment typically would support tornado potential either in embedded supercells or via QLCS tornadoes. Furthermore, effective shear magnitudes greater that 45 kt and strong instability are noted. The 00z RAOB from LZK shows enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs with effective SRH near 250 m2/s2. This area has the best environment to support tornado potential this evening. The main change to this region was to shrink the 10 percent sig tornado probability area and confine it to north-central/northeast AR to the MO Bootheel. The main severe risk from parts of OK/AR into the Mid-South/TN Valley) remains largely unchanged. Severe probabilities have also been trimmed from parts of MO/IL/IN/OH where weaker stability/shear and a worked over airmass from earlier convection resides, resulting in low severe storm potential the remainder of the evening. ![]() The main changes with the 01z update were to remove severe probabilities from the northern Plains to the Great Lakes. Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes remain possible from the Ozarks to the Tennessee Valley into tonight. Valid 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2023 ![]()
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